Writing

Rantings and rumblings.

01

Atlantic Net and the Northern Navies pact point the Royal Navy towards a commercially run, uncrewed seabed shield

The Ministry of Defence has awarded a £90 million framework to Ocean Infinity for Atlantic Net, a contractor-owned, contractor-operated network of uncrewed vessels and sensors to track Russian submarines in the Greenland–Iceland–UK gap.

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02

Abu Dhabi talks open with US security guarantees and NATO's eastern posture on the table

Delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 November, the first substantive trilateral meeting since February. National security advisers from the UK, France and Germany are there to consult on post-war European security.

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03

UK puts second ISTARI satellite in orbit as Russia hits Kyiv ahead of Abu Dhabi talks

The Ministry of Defence says its Titania observation satellite is in orbit, the second in the ISTARI constellation. It also announced Project Inaros, a trial of ground sensors that track objects in space.

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04

Prime minister reviews US award for UK military satellite system as Hormuz attacks continue

Downing Street is reviewing a decision to give a UK military satellite contract to a US firm, according to Sky News. The report is a single, thin item: the programme, the company and the grounds for review are all unstated.

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05

Democrats take Congress as Iran war costs weigh on Trump and Hormuz stays tense

Democrats have won both chambers of Congress in the US midterms, and Donald Trump has blamed the Iran war, and the fuel prices it brought, for the result. He nonetheless says he has no regrets and has confirmed further strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island.

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06

Russia's largest energy strike of 2026 hits Ukraine's grid as Abu Dhabi talks near

Russia launched its biggest attack of the year on Ukraine's energy system on 3 November. Ukrainian officials say it used 289 drones, 59 cruise missiles and 17 ballistic missiles.

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07

UK and France to rehearse a post-ceasefire Ukraine force as Russian bombs kill 26 at aid centre

Britain and France will lead Exercise Koalicja in Poland from 9 to 22 November, the first live rehearsal for the non-NATO Multinational Force Ukraine. It involves 2,800 personnel from 11 nations.

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08

US clears 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine, but deliveries may not begin until the 2030s

The US State Department has approved a $2.1bn sale of 500 PAC-3 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, paid for by Canada, Germany and Norway and by EU loan money. Reporting says the new-build missiles will not arrive until the early 2030s.

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09

UK ties foreign arms purchases to domestic offsets as Budget funding detail emerges

The Ministry of Defence has published an Offset Policy requiring overseas suppliers on major contracts to deliver UK economic benefits, worth up to the full contract value. It applies from April 2027 and marks a shift from competition-led buying.

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10

Budget funds the defence plan and sets a 3% target for 2030, but defers how to pay for it

Chancellor John Healey used his first Budget to close the £4.7bn funding gap in the £298bn Defence Investment Plan. He did so with a further 1% capital cut across other departments.

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11

Two men charged over RAF Fairford as UK and Poland sign three-year defence plan

Prosecutors have charged two London men under the National Security Act 2023 over the 27 September incident near RAF Fairford. Counter Terrorism Policing believes the overseas handler behind it worked for Iranian intelligence.

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12

Healey to set a path to 3.5% defence spending as RAF chief bets on drone wingmen

Chancellor John Healey is expected to use Wednesday's Budget to set out a route to the NATO target of 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035, rather than waiting for next year's Spending Review. Independent analysis suggests the costings are thin.

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13

Starlink throttling in Ukraine exposes how far battlefield connectivity rests on private decisions

SpaceX has admitted it deliberately restricted Ukraine's commercial Starlink service, and speeds were restored on 25 October after days of disruption. The episode coincided with US pressure on Kyiv over strikes on Russian refineries.

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14

Defence Committee warns frigate gap could last to 2037 as Rheinmetall restarts UK gun barrels

The Commons Defence Committee says the Royal Navy has five frigates with towed-array sonar against a requirement of eight. It warns that sending two Type 26 build slots to Norway could cut that to two by 2031 and delay recovery to 2037.

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15

Commons committee says Royal Navy shortages leave the High North exposed

The House of Commons Defence Committee has warned that the UK cannot credibly deter Russia in the Arctic and North Atlantic with the fleet it has.

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16

UK commits Typhoons to defend Saudi Arabia as NATO reinforces the Black Sea

The UK will fly RAF Typhoons on defensive counter-air missions over Saudi Arabia against Houthi missile and drone attacks, according to the Ministry of Defence. It is a step from supplying and advising to patrolling Saudi airspace.

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17

MoD savings target is back-loaded as Kyiv disputes US intelligence and Patriot claims

The Ministry of Defence must find £10.7bn of efficiencies in the four years to 2029-30, according to a written answer from the defence readiness minister, Luke Pollard.

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18

Ukraine launches its largest drone wave as US pressure over Starshield and intelligence persists

Ukraine launched roughly 1,000 drones against Russia overnight on 17–18 October, according to Russian figures, after the US-declared "energy ceasefire" collapsed. Strikes reached St Petersburg and closed Moscow's airports for several nights.

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19

Starshield cap persists as Kyiv resumes refinery strikes and Washington denies involvement

Reuters, citing sources, reports that the order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside the White House. Axios reports that the White House denies involvement and blames a technical malfunction.

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20

SpaceX caps Ukraine's military Starlink speeds as London accelerates air-defence supplies

Without warning, SpaceX capped Starlink terminals used by the Ukrainian military at 100 mph (160 km/h). Kyiv's officials read the cap as US political pressure.

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21

MI5 sets up an AI threat centre as Kyiv is hit without warning

MI5's Director General, Sir Ken McCallum, used his annual security update to announce an AI Threat Assessment Centre.

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22

UK blames Iran's IRGC for RAF base incidents and sanctions two officials

The most consequential development of the past day came in the Commons. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the incidents at RAF Fairford and RAF Molesworth were highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran and almost certainly directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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23

Trump declares an energy ceasefire Kyiv says it never agreed

Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed an immediate "energy ceasefire". Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the announcement news to him, and Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continued through the day.

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24

Trump calls for a new Ukrainian president as Riyadh airport is hit

The most consequential development of the past day came from Washington. Donald Trump said Ukraine needs a new president, after Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the US waiver on Russian diesel.

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25

Ukraine strikes Russia's AI data centres as Trump buys Russian diesel

Ukraine has added a new category to its target list. In two nights of drone strikes it hit Yandex data centres in Ryazan and Kaluga oblasts. According to Yandex, one of them houses two of the three supercomputers it uses to train its large language models.

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26

Britain opens GCAP to Germany as a sailor is charged with spying

Britain has told Germany it is open to Berlin joining the Global Combat Air Programme, four months after the Franco-German FCAS fighter project collapsed. If it happens, Europe's sixth-generation fighter effort would largely sit inside one programme led by London, Rome and Tokyo.

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27

Russian barrage kills dozens in Ukraine; Type 31 frigates lose their dates

Russia fired one of its largest combined missile and drone salvoes of the autumn at Ukraine on Wednesday. A cruise missile flattened an apartment block in Pryluky, and reported deaths across the country approached 30. The numbers matter beyond the casualties.

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28

Pentagon builds an autonomy command as drones sink a ship off Bulgaria

The Pentagon is moving autonomy out of the laboratory and into the force structure. According to Defense One, a 30 September memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directs the creation of an Autonomous Warfare Command by October 2027.

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29

Pentagon drops Anthropic's AI as NATO drafts a drone-heavy defence plan

The US Department of Defense says it has stopped using Anthropic's AI models altogether, seven months after it declared the company a supply-chain risk for refusing to drop limits on autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. The phase-out ran more than a month past its deadline.

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